Key Points
Key Takeaways
- 1
US stocks: AI semiconductors (TSMC/Nvidia) continue driving the bull market
- 2
Japanese stocks: TOPIX surged significantly in the last 3 months (+14%), corporate reforms bearing fruit
- 3
TSMC's 2026 Q1 forecast shows +40% YoY growth, AI demand remains a 'megatrend'
- 4
Key factors to watch: US 'no landing' scenario and BOJ's next rate hike timing
To capture recent market moves “quickly and visually,” we compared the US S&P 500 / NASDAQ 100 with Japan’s TOPIX . Data uses stooq.com daily series (last 120 trading days).
This article is a market information summary based on reliable sources (Bloomberg/WSJ/company IR).
Investment decisions are always your own responsibility
and should be made accordingly.
Last 120 days (line chart)
Stock trends over the last 120 days
IndexRecent percentage changes (1W / 1M / 3M)
| Index | 1W | 1M | 3M | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.33% | +1.88% | +4.10% | Rising gradually. Defensive sectors remain firm. |
| NASDAQ 100 | +0.21% | +2.05% | +3.79% | Growth stocks are in a high range but momentum is slowing. |
| TOPIX | +4.96% | +6.81% | +14.37% | Clearly stronger than the US. |
US stocks: The “second wave” of AI semiconductors arrives
The key focus for 2026 is, without a doubt, the bullish outlook from TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.) .
At the January 16, 2026 earnings release, TSMC guided for up to a 40% increase in 2026 Q1 revenue. AI demand from Nvidia, Apple, and hyperscalers is “bottomless.”
If 2024-2025 was the year of “training,” 2026 is the year of edge devices and company-specific “inference.” Demand is shifting from simple GPU shortages to more advanced packaging technologies (CoWoS, etc.).
US stocks: Broad sectors steady, high tech slightly slower
The S&P 500 has risen a solid +4% over three months. Notable is the sector rotation underway.
From the prior “AI and semiconductors only” trade, capital is rotating toward defensive to value sectors such as healthcare, financials, and utilities .
Meanwhile, the NASDAQ 100 remains in a high range, but its gains trail the S&P 500. “The AI growth story remains intact, but valuation normalization and long-term yields are weighing on the group” captures the current situation.
The market”s base case is a “soft landing” (disinflation without recession), but strong employment data has revived “no landing” risks (growth is too strong and inflation re-accelerates). This keeps long-term yields elevated and caps upside in high-tech stocks.
Japan stocks: Why TOPIX is strong (+14%)
TOPIX has gained over +14% in three months, materially outperforming US equities. Three structural factors sit behind this “Japan-only rally.”
- Escaping deflation and wage growth : Following the 2025 spring wage talks, high wage increases are expected again in 2026, lifting real wages and supporting consumption.
- TSE reforms bearing fruit (PBR below 1x fixes) : Share buybacks and dividend hikes are at record highs, triggering a re-rating by overseas investors.
- Financials on the rise : As the BOJ normalizes policy, “improved earnings expectations for banks and insurers are strongly lifting share prices.
2026 investment strategy: focus on AI or diversify Japan/US
- Maximize exposure to the historic megatrend of AI demand
Invest in companies with strong pricing power and extraordinary operating margins (50%+)
Demand for compute spills into energy and infrastructure investment, leaving substantial room for growth
- Valuations are high and extremely sensitive to rising interest rates
- US-China geopolitical risks create uncertainty in supply chains
Key points to watch going forward
- United States : CPI / FOMC / major tech earnings. Volatility tends to rise around these events.
- Japan : BOJ meetings, spring wage negotiation trends, and the yen.
Retail investor strategy: what should you do?
A realistic action plan for individual investors based on current trends.
- Core assets (NISA) :
- Don”t move them. Keep dollar-cost averaging into “All Country” or “S&P 500” funds.
- Satellite strategy :
- Slightly raise the Japan equity weight : Look for pullbacks in TOPIX-linked funds or high-dividend ETFs.
- Diversify into bonds : With US rates staying high, consider individual bonds or bond ETFs for income.
- Hedges domestic inflation (negative real rates)
If yen weakness continues, it helps prevent erosion of yen-denominated assets
Shareholder returns (dividend growth) tend to be higher than in US equities
- Higher volatility than US equities
- Directly exposed to political risk and FX moves
For those who are unsure what to buy, this book remains a timeless guide even in 2026.
JUST KEEP BUYING: The Rules of Money and Time That Automatically Increase Wealth
A modern classic that proves the math behind 'buy even in crashes' and 'buy even at highs.' It shows why calmly buying through the noise is the right approach.
Summary
In one line, the current market is “a changing of the guard (US tech -> Japan value)”.
US growth remains compelling over the long term, but in the short to mid term, Japan’s corporate transformation (governance reforms) offers attractive alpha (excess returns).
Until recently, it was “US dominance,” but in 2026, “Japan-US diversification” should be key for portfolio stability.
Data sources
- S&P 500: https://stooq.com/q/d/l/?s=“%5Espx&i=d”
- NASDAQ 100: https://stooq.com/q/d/l/?s=“%5Endq&i=d”
- TOPIX: https://stooq.com/q/d/l/?s=“%5Etpx&i=d”
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